The sharp decline in energy storage costs combined with the impact of interest rate cuts, large storage & industrial and commercial energy storage certainty high growth. In 2023, overseas natural gas prices fall and loan interest rates rise, which have many adverse effects on marginal demand, but energy storage still achieves rapid growth from the perspective of installed capacity. Looking forward to 2024, energy storage costs fall sharply, project yields rise, and the US interest rate cut is expected to continue to achieve rapid growth in global energy storage installed capacity. It is expected that the new installed capacity of global energy storage in 2023-2024 will be 94.6 and 173.4GWh, respectively, an increase of 101% and 83%. Large storage capacity was 74.0 GWh and 138.0GWh respectively, up 111% and 86% year-on-year. Industrial and commercial energy storage were 6.2 GWh and 14.4GWh respectively, with year-on-year growth of 107% and 132%. The household reserves were 14.4 GWh and 21.0GWh respectively, with year-on-year growth of 60% and 46%.
China: The pressure of consumption has pushed up the storage requirements, and it is expected that the newly installed energy storage capacity will be 70.4GWh in 2024. This year, the provinces issued documents requiring an increase in the proportion of new energy storage, some of the largest distributed installed provinces for the first time explicitly require distributed photovoltaic storage, estimated in 2024, the national average storage ratio of 12.0%, 2.3 hours of storage. The conservative assumption is that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power in 2024 is 180 and 75GW respectively, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 30.6GW/70.4GWh in 2024, an increase of 69%/91% year-on-year. Taking into account the synchronous decline of photovoltaic and energy storage costs, the rate of return on optical storage is still considerable after the increase of the proportion of photovoltaic and energy storage construction costs of 3 yuan /W, 1 yuan /Wh, when the proportion of photovoltaic storage increased to 30%*2h, the vast majority of domestic provinces and cities, the rate of return on optical storage is still more than 8%. In addition, with a higher proportion of scenery entering the power market trading, the utilization rate of stock/new energy storage power stations is expected to increase. The United States: interest rates have peaked + costs have fallen, demand growth has accelerated, and it is expected that 38GWh of new installed capacity will be stored in 2024. In the first three quarters of 2023, the new installed capacity of large storage in the United States was 4.4GW/13.4GWh, an increase of 41%/46% year-on-year. According to estimates, when the energy storage construction cost drops from $0.2 /Wh to $0.18 /Wh, the project income rate can be increased by at least 5pct, and the loan interest rate falls by 100 basis points, the project yield will increase by 1.4pct. With the acceleration of lithium carbonate prices to bottom out, and the gradual landing of the Fed's interest rate reduction policy, the IRR of energy storage power stations is expected to be significantly improved, and the installed capacity growth is expected to exceed expectations, and the new installed capacity of large storage in the United States is expected to be 21 and 38GWh in 2023-2024, an increase of 72% and 81% year-on-year. Europe: grid side energy storage projects large-scale landing, demand is expected to exceed expectations, household storage to end the shipment growth is expected to turn positive. Since this year, the relevant support policies and bidding speed of European countries for large-scale energy storage have accelerated significantly, according to the European Energy Storage Association forecast that the new installed capacity in Europe will reach 5.3GW in 2024, an increase of 41%. It is expected that the new installed capacity of European household storage in 2023-2024 will be 9.4 and 13.0GWh, respectively, an increase of 72% and 38%, with the inventory gradually declining to a reasonable state, and the arrival of the 2Q24 European installation season is expected to promote the recovery of household storage and shipment year-on-year growth. The revenue growth rate and profitability of energy storage enterprises are differentiated, and the head enterprises are always strong. With the release of battery supply and the intensification of competition in the energy storage market, the revenue growth and profitability of various companies have significantly differentiated, and the number of companies with strong ability to obtain overseas orders and profits have increased significantly. At this stage, price reduction and inventory removal speed up the industry clearance, and in the future, enterprises with global business layout, vertical integration industry chain and good financing ability endorsement will have more advantages in market share and profitability.
